The Florida Republican primary Tuesday is shaping up as a two-man contest between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in which Hispanics may determine the outcome.
Ron Paul and Rick Santorum virtually abandoned the Sunshine State. The Washington Post said, "Rick Santorum is tired, almost broke -- and going home," while Politico noted Paul hasn't held a single event, spent a lone ad dollar or actively campaigned in Florida.
Florida Republicans prefer Romney to Gingrich, four polls taken Jan. 24 to 25 show. Three give Romney a seven- to eight-point lead, while the Quinnipiac shows a closer two-point spread.
With the candidate field effectively narrowed to two, Hispanic voters may determine which candidate gets a 50-delgate boost in the winner-take-all primary.
Voter Eligibility
Florida is a closed primary state, so only registered Republicans can vote. There are 4,063,853 registered Republicans in Florida, according to the Division of Elections.
Registered Republican Profile
* White voters are the majority, numbering 3,407,241.
* Florida has the third highest Latino population among the states, and Latinos comprise 11.1 percent of Florida's Republican voters, the Pew Center said. They're the second largest racial/ethnic concentration among Florida Republicans and there are 452, 619 of them. Florida's Hispanic voters tend to be younger than the average sunshine state voter; 57 percent are not native-born; 43 percent are naturalized American citizens. The dominant origins of Florida Hispanics are Cuban (32 percent) and Puerto Rico (28 percent.)
* Black voters constitute a much smaller segment of Florida's Republican base, 58,759 in all.
* Asians and Pacific Islanders add 48,967 more voters to the Republican rolls.
* The other subgroups include Native American/Alaskan (11,776), Other (46,375), and Unknown (38,116).
Latino Vote's Importance
The Cubans in south Florida are Republican party stalwarts and have long been considered essential for success in winning the GOP nomination. In the close 2012 race, the Sun-Sentinel said, the Hispanic vote is the wildcard, but it's central Floridian Puerto Ricans who hold the key.
Immigration won't be the decisive issue due to the concentration of Cubans and Puerto Ricans, according to the Sun-Sentinel. Cubans have an immigration fast track available and Puerto Ricans are already American citizens. Positions on trade policy, jobs, and the economy will be determinative, Right Wing News noted. Florida was walloped in the recession has been battling high unemployment and underemployment as well as disproportionate fallout from the nation's mortgage crisis. Hispanic unemployment was two points higher than the state average in 2010.
Romney and Gingrich both played to Hispanic voters in Thursday night's debate and both visit the Hispanic Leadership Network in Miami Friday.
Latino Preferences
According to a recent Latino Decisions poll, Hispanic voters prefer Romney by a wider spread than voters in general. This is the same candidate they rejected in 2008, in favor of Arizona Senator John McCain. McCain amassed 54 percent of the Hispanic vote to Romney's 14 percent.
cnet tampa bay rays netanyahu apple keynote apple keynote seattle news seattle news
No comments:
Post a Comment